Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”